Tight monetary policy will suppress copper capex. Loose fiscal policy, which is lavishing stimulus on energy and defense firms, will stoke copper demand. Constrained copper supply and turbo-charged demand will feed into headline inflation. If the CCP adopts large-scale monetary stimulus to break its...
In the aftermath of the bank failures in the US, the outperformance Quality and Safety overpowered the underperformance of Value resulting in a moderately positive month for the BCA Score L/S and the USHQ SMID cap portfolio. The USHQ Large Cap portfolio underperformed in growth sectors as investors ...
Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in future....
In this <i>Special Report</i>, BCA Strategist Ritika Mankar highlights that Japanese savers own foreign assets to the tune of a staggering $6.5 trillion today. As implausible as it may seem today, the rate cycle in Japan will turn later this decade. Once it does, Japanese savers will sell down their...
When complexity collapses, it is a red flag for impending tail-events, heart attacks, and reversals in the markets. We describe how to measure complexity, how to spot the red flag that it has collapsed, and list some investments that are approaching potential turning-points....
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical risk should encourage investors to maintain a defensive position for t...
The Global Equity Score, while bearish, increased this month resulting in an upgrade to Technology and Materials Sector Scores. The BCA Style score now favors small cap growth....
MacroQuant is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and overweight cash. Within equities, the model favors Europe over the US and is neutral on EM....
The OPEC 2.0 supply cuts announced over the weekend will be fundamentally bullish international crude oil prices. According to our model, brent will cross the USD 100/bbl mark by August this year. We believe the cohort is pre-emptively cutting oil supply in response to threats to their economic inte...
