FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of corporate balance sheet health show a persistent steady deterioration.
The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.
In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting
In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.
The CCP’s fiscal measures and property-market support are important steps to deal with China’s liquidity trap. The fiscal measures are the first such direct aid to households and small firms seen since 2020, which included tax relief and waived social security contributions, according to the IMF. The size of the programs has not been disclosed. If they are successful, global commodity demand will get a boost at the margin, particularly oil and base metals. We remain long equity ETFs to retain exposure to energy and metal producers and refiners, and long the COMT ETF for direct commodity exposure.
US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.
In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.
The Fed and ECB talked a good game as they redoubled their commitments to returning core inflation to 2% p.a. at Jackson Hole. However, their outmoded inflation-fighting playbooks do not address supply tightness in commodity and energy markets, which keeps inflation risk elevated. The proposed expansion of the BRICS states seeks to capitalize on these trends, and supports efforts to weaken the centrality of the USD in global trade. We remain long commodity exposure via ETFs to retain exposure to energy and metals producers and refiners.