FICC

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months.

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we outline the three themes that we believe will drive commodity markets this year: (1) demand growth will remain sluggish across cyclical commodities (2) supply-side developments will ultimately be bearish for oil prices, and (3) traditional relationships between commodity prices and financial variables may not hold.

Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.

In this week’s report, we look at the likely trend for bonds yields and the dollar in the coming months.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review.

A confluence of both supply and demand factors contributed to the natural gas rally over the past few months. This trend could continue for a while longer. However, cyclical and structural factors ultimately argue against a sustained increase in prices.

Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction.

Special Report

This week, we present our key views for Global Fixed Income and FX for 2025.